Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta – Indonesia's trade surplus with the United States continued to widen despite Washington's tariff measures, but economists warn against complacency as further restrictions remain possible.
Indonesia posted a $12.47 billion surplus with the US in January-August 2026, up from $12.26 billion a year earlier. The US was also the biggest contributor to Indonesia's overall August surplus of $3.55 billion.
Indonesian exports currently face a 10% US tariff imposed following a forced-labor investigation, while Washington is conducting a separate probe into structural excess manufacturing capacity that could lead to additional measures.
Airlangga University economist Rahma Gafmi said strong US demand for products such as palm oil and footwear had helped sustain Indonesia's surplus despite higher trade barriers.
"Indonesia must remain on alert. Trump's 'America First' policy and reciprocal tariff framework place surplus-generating countries like Indonesia under close watch," Rahma told the Jakarta Globe.
She urged Indonesia to lower logistics costs, move exports up the value chain and improve its investment climate.
CORE Indonesia Executive Director Mohammad Faisal said Indonesia also benefited from a relatively level playing field because competing exporters faced US tariffs as well. Both economists, however, warned against excessive dependence on the American market.
"Overreliance on the US will make Indonesia's economy vulnerable to external shocks," Rahma said, urging Jakarta to pursue trade agreements with non-traditional markets, including Africa and the Middle East.
Indonesia and the US signed a reciprocal trade agreement in February, although some economists criticized its terms as favoring Washington. Jakarta has since signaled that adjustments could be considered after the US excess-capacity investigation.
The issue is now being discussed at the G20 Trade Ministers' Meeting in Milwaukee.
Indonesian Trade Minister Budi Santoso said Jakarta would use the forum to support a fair, open and rules-based multilateral trading system and ensure G20 initiatives comply with World Trade Organization rules.
"Indonesia will continue to advocate a multilateral trading system that is fair and provides certainty for all countries," Budi said in a statement.
Indonesia is also presenting its position on four global issues: the weaponization of food through coercive trade actions, structural excess capacity and production, the most-favored-nation principle, and the elimination of forced labor in global supply chains.